In response to operational hindrances caused by the COVID-19 outbreak, the U.S. Census Bureau asked Congress in April to extend the data collection period of their decennial report by four months. Congress is expected to authorize the Bureau’s request, which would expose Virginia to a unique set of challenges as it faces once-in-a-decade redistricting, a constitutional amendment to reform such a process, and scheduled elections in 2021.

“Gerrymandering” is the deliberate manipulation of an electoral constituency’s boundaries in order to benefit a political party.  It has long troubled democracy in Virginia. Under the current system, the General Assembly alone is responsible for redrawing electoral district lines. With no mention of rules or clear criteria in Virginia’s Constitution on how this procedure should take place, lawmakers have had the de facto power of carving out their own electorate. Efforts to reform this process in the Commonwealth - which more than 70% of Virginians support - successfully manifested itself earlier this year, when state lawmakers passed the second step in a proposed constitutional amendment to create Virginia’s first independent redistricting commission. Moreover, the passage of accompanying legislation created further criteria that seeks to protect minority populations in the redistricting process.

Should Virginians favor the amendment at the ballot box this November in the form of a referendum, a “Virginia Redistricting Commission” would be formally created. This newly-minted, 16-person commission, composed of eight state lawmakers, four each from the two major parties, and eight citizens, would then use new census data to redraw the state’s congressional and General Assembly district lines in time for next year’s June primary contests. However, if the census results are not released to states until July 31st, 2021, as would be the case if Congress grants the Bureau an extension, Virginia could end up postponing the primary until the state legislature - or the Virginia Redistricting Commission - processes the delayed population data and redraws district lines. 

However, even a postponed primary is unlikely to provide adequate time to draw new districts with new census data, especially considering filing deadlines for candidates and the need to update the electorate on their new districts. An alternative situation could witness the June contests proceeding as scheduled under the existing maps. This, however, could open the door to legal challenges. If courts question the results based on the nearly decade-old maps employed, they could order a special election to be held in 2022 once the new districts are in place. Considering 2023 is a normal election cycle for the General Assembly, the House of Delegates could face three consecutive years of elections.

Be that as it may, the challenges presented by COVID-19 and the extension of census results will inevitably force Virginia to navigate landmark redistricting reform under a condensed timeline. Virginia isn’t a stranger to ad hoc election rescheduling in the face of a new census nor three House elections in as many years. In 2011, the state’s primary was rescheduled from June to August in order to allow time for legislative redistricting. Nevertheless, what remains to be seen is how quickly and fairly new congressional and state legislative maps, which will invariably impact Virginia politics for the next decade, will be implemented.